Dillon, how do you think UBI???? I heard that EA will stop selling games in stores but all from internet? Is the game industrial getting warmer now?
For EO, it has much less market share than FR in emerging market, especially in Asia, while European market is going down...
I suggest to compare their Q1 report before investing. Can you guys share some points of view regarding EO?? merci
I am out of office for training so can't trade this week... : (
ps: I have 10K on FR and 10K on ALU currently, and FR's dividend has just arrived : )
boxfood 发表于 2012-7-4 21:15
Dillon, how do you think UBI???? I heard that EA will stop selling games in stores but all from inte ...
Well, about Ubi, as far as I'm concerned, I'm merely interested in the yearly augmentation of capital reserved only to employees, mainly because of the 15% decote. For the year of 2012, the offered price is 4.48E ( after decote ), with 25% prime given the current market price at 5.6E. In this way, I've been increasing my investment in Ubi stock share every year, since 2001, already 11 years so far.
But for normal investors who buy and sell stock share directly on the market without any decote, at least for this moment, Ubi is not the best choice since their are way too many other better choices out there on the market.
But since you've asked, I could give you some general info about this stock, about this company, and about this game industry as a whole. The game industry has its own cycles, which are mainly linked to the arrival of each new generation of game consoles. Last time when the Ubi stock price began to soar, it was mainly thanks to the last generation new concoles (Wii, x360, PS3 ), in that comercial war happened 10 years ago, Ubisoft won a larger market share from other major competitors like EA, and both CA and RN increased, and ubisoft stock price went up accordingly. In addition, thanks to the EA "incident"( EA took around 20% stake of Ubi, with the OPA rumors ), Ubi got its 5-6 years of glory, and the stock price increased around 15 times at its highest peak. However unfortunately, in those following 5 years, as the competition became more and more severe, as the decline of the whole industry due to piracy reason and other complicated reasons, the stock price of not only Ubisoft but also other game companys continued to fall, until now. Specific to Ubisoft, the CA continued to progress, but there was a real problem of profitability. Ubisoft sells more games every year, but the RN is at a much lower level comparing to other competitors like Activison-Blizzard. Ubisoft's RN was negative during 2-3 years, and it was only starting from last year that Ubisoft became profitable again.
So now the tendency just begins to change. On one hand, Ubisoft becomes more and more profitable, at least its RN became positive, with good perspective for the years to come. On the other hand, the upcoming next generation of game consoles would give Ubisoft another oppurtunity to win more market share. Of course this is not sure, and also not easy, but I've the conviction... But perhaps not everybody have the same faith...
Conclusion: if you are interested in Ubisoft stock, why not put it into your portefoliio right now, then wait and see. For middle to long term, this investissement is not very risky, since this company goes well, and the current PEA is historically and ridiculously low. However, keep in mind that there are many other better opportunities out there, like Soitec, like Archos, like Gameloft, and much more. So it's up to you to decide how many Ubisoft stock you would like to have in your own portefolio.
Finally, thanks for the proposal of FR over EO. For me, historically I was interested in both FR and EO, and I'm mainly interested in their correlation with CAC. For quite a long period in the past, EO's beta is seemingly higher than FR, it's the reason why in the current situation at the moment of the start of the recovery, I prefer EO over FR. Since I prefer to buy something with a beta of 2 rather than something with a beta of 1, so I always buy LVC/GLE/ACA rather than BNP/Totale.
But again, you are right, things have changed recently, FR becomes stronger and stronger, whereas EO becomes weaker and weaker, as if the beta of FR goes beyond 1 whereas the beta of EO goes below 2. So it's the moment for me to rethink about arbitrage between these two stocks. Or alternatively, simply buy LVC/BX4.
Compte Titre中: 早上买入JXR. 下午原价全部抛出, 损失交易费. 另外跑掉之前的所有SRD的LVC, 也是损失交易费.
PEA中操作: 全部清仓(除了少量套牢的MEMS和ALHOL未动)换成BX4
Lyxor ETF XBear CAC 40 42159163 5-7-2012 Achat de titres 1 680 CPT M 5-7-2012 1 680 à 35,23 Exécuté en une fois
METabolic EXplorer SA 42159106 5-7-2012 Vente de titres 7 018 CPT M 5-7-2012 7 018 à 3,56 Restant exécuté
Archos SA 42159086 5-7-2012 Vente de titres 7 079 CPT M 5-7-2012 7 079 à 4,84 Restant exécuté
Lyxor ETF XBear CAC 40 42158580 5-7-2012 Achat de titres 900 CPT M 5-7-2012 900 à 34,99 Exécuté en une fois
Valeo SA 42158552 5-7-2012 Vente de titres 290 CPT M 5-7-2012 290 à 34,51 Exécuté en une fois
Lyxor ETF Leverage CAC 40 42158499 5-7-2012 Vente de titres 3 595 CPT M 5-7-2012 3 595 à 6,02 Exécuté en une fois
Lyxor ETF Leverage CAC 40 42145414 4-7-2012 Achat de titres 3 595 CPT L: 6,07 4-7-2012 3 595 à 6,07 Exécuté en une fois
Valeo SA 42145333 4-7-2012 Achat de titres 290 CPT L: 34,90 4-7-2012 290 à 34,61 Restant exécuté
Lyxor ETF Leverage CAC 40 42145144 4-7-2012 Achat de titres 831 CPT L: 6,01 4-7-2012 Annulation confirmée
Lyxor ETF Leverage CAC 40 42145134 4-7-2012 Achat de titres 828 CPT L: 6,03 6-7-2012 Annulation confirmée
Memscap SA (regroupées) 42145120 4-7-2012 Achat de titres 3 619 CPT L: 1,38 4-7-2012 Annulation confirmée
Faurecia SA 42144810 4-7-2012 Vente de titres 857 CPT L: 13,89 4-7-2012 857 à 13,89 Exécuté en une fois
Faurecia SA 42144771 4-7-2012 Vente de titres 722 CPT L: 13,86 4-7-2012 722 à 13,86 Exécuté en une fois
Faurecia SA 42144694 4-7-2012 Vente de titres 717 CPT L: 13,98 6-7-2012 Annulation confirmée
Faurecia SA 42143852 4-7-2012 Vente de titres 720 CPT L: 13,90 4-7-2012 Annulation confirmée
Faurecia SA 42143840 4-7-2012 Vente de titres 723 CPT L: 13,85 4-7-2012 723 à 13,85 Restant exécuté
